Seven EM Countries at Risk of Exchange-Rate Crisis, Nomura Says
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| แหล่งที่มา : www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ | วันที่โพสต์ : 10 ก.ย. 2561 | ||
| Seven EM Countries at Risk of Exchange-Rate Crisis, Nomura Says | |||
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Seven emerging economies at risk of an exchange-rate crisis are Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine, according to a new analysis by Nomura Holdings Inc.
With five of the seven already in a currency crisis or a program run by the International Monetary Fund, that leaves South Africa and Pakistan as the standouts. At the same time, the eight countries with the lowest risk of a crisis are Brazil, Bulgaria, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, Philippines, Russia and Thailand, according to analysts including Robert Subbaraman, Singapore-based head of emerging-markets economics. “This is an important result,” they wrote in a note Monday. “As investors focus more on EM risk it is important not to lump all EMs together as one homogeneous group; Damocles highlights a long list of countries with very low risk of full-blown crises.” Nomura’s findings are based on an early warning model -- called Damocles -- set up to identify exchange rate crises for 30 emerging economies. The model examines a variety of factors including foreign-exchange reserves, debt levels, interest rates and import cover.
Damocles refers to the moral parable the Sword of Damocles, an allusion to imminent and ever-present danger — With assistance by Andreea Papuc |
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